2026 Australian NDIS Industry: M&A Overview

By Morgan Business Sales | September 2026

Sector Overview

The NDIS is not one industry so much as a large funding pool sitting above a very wide range of businesses. It includes support coordinators who help participants plan and manage their funding, Supported Independent Living and accommodation providers who deliver housing and daily support, allied health practices covering occupational therapy, physiotherapy, speech pathology and psychology, plan management firms who handle the financial administration, standalone therapy services, and disability employment providers. The scheme paid out roughly $46.3 billion on an accrual basis in FY2024-25, and IBISWorld estimates total industry revenue at close to $49.8 billion for 2025-26, having grown at an average of 11.6% a year over the past five years. There were 774,456 active participants as at March 2026, and the National Disability Insurance Agency's own long-range projections put total scheme spend at close to $93 billion by 2033-34.

What makes this sector unusual for a buyer or a seller is the gap between how many organisations operate in the space and how few are actually accountable to the NDIS Commission. Of an estimated 277,376 active providers, only 17,374 — about 6% — are formally registered. The remaining 94% operate as unregistered providers, delivering services to self-managed or plan-managed participants without the same audit obligations. That distinction matters enormously for a buyer, because registration status directly determines which service categories a business can legally deliver, what compliance history exists to review, and how much regulatory risk transfers with the sale.

The market is also genuinely fragmented in a way that is unusual even for Australian small business. No single provider holds more than roughly 1.3% of total scheme payments, and the combined top 25 providers account for only around 10% of the market. Even the large not-for-profit names — Life Without Barriers, Aruma, Cerebral Palsy Alliance, Northcott and others — operate at modest margins, and nine of the ten largest providers reported a negative adjusted operating result in their most recent results. That combination of scale without dominance, and revenue without reliable profitability, shapes almost everything about how buyers assess a business in this sector.

For an owner, the practical takeaway is that the NDIS label alone tells a buyer very little. What actually drives interest is whether the business holds current registration in the right categories, whether its referral sources are diversified across coordinators, allied health networks and direct participant relationships, whether staff turnover and audit history are clean, and whether the business can keep running smoothly if the founder steps back. Those specifics, not the size of the national funding pool, are what determine price.

ANZSIC Classification

There is no dedicated ANZSIC class for disability services in Australia. Providers are instead classified under several related codes within Division Q Health Care and Social Assistance, and IBISWorld tracks the sector separately under its own proprietary code rather than an official ANZSIC number. Many businesses span more than one code, so the most useful classification is the activity that generates most of the revenue.

Because ANZSIC does not map cleanly onto how the scheme itself is structured, most buyers and brokers rely instead on the NDIS Commission's own registration groups. There are 36 registration groups across seven broad categories, and the group a business is registered under is usually a more useful signal of what it can legally deliver than any ANZSIC code. The groups most relevant to mid-market transactions are Group 0128 Therapeutic Supports (allied health and therapy), Group 0115 (Supported Independent Living), Groups 0106 and 0132 (support coordination) and Group 0127 (plan management).

22 Verified M&A Transactions (2021–2026)

This table covers 17 core mid-market transactions under A$50M and five larger deals noted for context. It is not a valuation formula. It is a practical view of the businesses buyers have actually acquired, the capabilities they sought and the prices disclosed where available. All values are in Australian dollars unless stated otherwise.

Transaction Commentary

nib Holdings — Building a National Plan Management Book One Acquisition at a Time

Health insurer nib has completed at least seven NDIS-related acquisitions since late 2022, moving methodically from Melbourne to Ballarat, Brisbane, Port Macquarie and beyond under its "nib Thrive" brand. None of the individual purchase prices have been disclosed, but the pattern is unmistakable: nib is buying established plan managers with thousands of existing participants rather than building a book from zero, and it paired its most recent acquisitions — MTGDM and Instacare, together worth $19.2 million — to add support coordination alongside plan management in one move. For an owner running a plan management or support coordination business, this shows there is a well-capitalised, repeat buyer actively looking for participant books with clean records and a stable client base. The businesses nib has bought all had a defined, transferable participant relationship rather than one built entirely around a single founder.

Healthia Ltd — The Clearest Window Into Real Allied Health Pricing

Healthia is the most useful acquirer to study because, as a listed company, it discloses more pricing detail than almost anyone else in this sector. Its 2021 purchase of Back In Motion Group, one of the largest physiotherapy networks in Australia and New Zealand, priced at 7.2x EBITDA on $88.4 million of consideration. In the same period it picked up a smaller bundle of clinics at 4.1x and an even smaller VIC/NSW bundle at just 3.97x, with its blended FY22 acquisition multiple landing at 6.8x. The gap between those numbers is the whole story: scale, multi-practitioner depth and geographic reach earned the premium, while smaller, single-clinician clinics were priced well below it even though the same acquirer was doing the buying. An owner should not read Healthia's 7.2x headline and assume that applies to a smaller, less diversified practice — the same buyer paid barely half that for less differentiated businesses in the very same year.

MedHealth — A Steady, Undisclosed-Value Bolt-On Strategy

MedHealth has completed at least seven allied health acquisitions since 2022 — Hanrahan Health, AIM Therapy for Children, Living to the Max, Real Therapy Solutions, Pepper Kids Therapy, Enunciate Allied Health and Connect Allied Health — without disclosing a purchase price or multiple for any of them. That silence is itself informative. MedHealth is not chasing headline deals; it is quietly filling geographic gaps across NSW, WA, SA and Queensland, often picking up founder-led, multidisciplinary practices with a specific local reputation. For an owner in a similar position, this is a reminder that many real transactions in this sector never make the news with a price attached, and that a buyer's interest is often driven by geography and referral relationships rather than headline scale.

Partnered Health and Bupa — How a Small Bolt-On Can Feed a Much Larger Exit

Private-equity-backed Partnered Health built a psychology and mental-health platform gradually, starting with a modest, undisclosed-value acquisition of New View Psychology in 2023 and adding NewPsych Psychologists in 2025. In June 2026, Bupa announced its intention to acquire the entire Partnered Health Group — a 68-clinic primary care and corporate health business that carries those psychology brands along with it — for a reported figure around $450 million, implying roughly 11x EBITDA on the group's forecast earnings. That multiple belongs to a large, diversified, multi-service institutional platform being bought by a health insurer, not to either of the small mental-health practices that were folded into it years earlier. For an owner of a single psychology or allied health practice, the lesson is to recognise the difference between what a platform sells for once it is assembled and diversified, and what an individual practice is worth on its own.

A Fragmented Market Still Waiting for Its First Wave of Real Consolidation

Across all the transactions researched for this report, only a handful disclosed enough financial detail to calculate a genuine EBITDA multiple, and even fewer disclosed a purchase price at all. That is unusual for a sector generating close to $50 billion a year in revenue, and it reflects just how early this market still is in its consolidation cycle. With 68,000-plus allied health practitioners nationally and minimal M&A activity relative to comparable healthcare markets overseas, most of the acquisitions completed to date have been small, founder-to-strategic bolt-ons rather than large platform buyouts. For an owner thinking about a future sale, that is genuinely useful context: buyers exist, and they are active, but the market has not yet standardised around a single accepted price. A well-prepared, well-documented business still has real room to negotiate on its own merits.

Valuation Benchmarks by Subsegment

A multiple is only a shorthand for risk, quality and scale. The table below uses a conservative tiered approach based on EBITDA — operating profit before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation — because a single-clinician practice, a stable $2M-profit multidisciplinary clinic and a national platform should not be valued in the same way. Figures marked "(indicative)" reflect brokerage and market guidance rather than a fully disclosed comparable transaction, given how few deals in this sector publish their pricing.

A small number of real disclosed transactions help anchor these ranges. Healthia's Back In Motion Group acquisition — one of the largest physiotherapy networks in the country, with 64 clinics and an established multi-state footprint — priced at 7.2x EBITDA, while a smaller bundle of clinics from the same acquirer in the same year priced at 4.1x, and an even smaller VIC/NSW bundle landed at just 3.97x. Morgan Business Sales' own sold-listing data adds further real evidence at the smaller end: a WA-based managed NDIS provider sold at 1.63x EBITDA, an aged care and NDIS provider sold at 3.0x, and a larger diversified Sydney platform generating $16.5 million in asking price against $3.1 million in EBITDA implied roughly 5.32x. Mainstream brokerage guidance from firms such as Miro Capital lands in a broadly similar 2x-6x range depending on size and subsegment.

The central message is straightforward. Genuinely disclosed and verified mid-market transactions in this sector cluster around 2x-6x EBITDA, with the vast majority sitting toward the lower half of that range. The upper end is reserved for multi-practitioner, multi-site businesses with diversified referral sources and demonstrated resilience to key-person risk. Figures above roughly 6x-7x in this sector almost always describe a large diversified platform sale — such as Bupa's reported ~11x acquisition of the much larger Partnered Health Group — rather than what an individual owner of a standalone $2M-$50M revenue business should expect. Given how few transactions in this sector disclose a real multiple at all, owners should treat every number in this table, including the ones with real transaction support, as a planning guide rather than a guarantee.

Demand Drivers

A still-growing funding pool

The scheme paid out $46.3 billion in FY2024-25 and is projected by the NDIA's own actuarial forecasts to reach close to $93 billion by 2033-34, even after recent budget measures aimed at slowing growth. That underlying scale is one reason buyers keep looking at this sector — the total addressable market is large and, on almost any credible projection, still expanding. For an owner, the practical point is not the size of the scheme itself but whether your specific participant base, referral relationships and registration categories put you in a position to keep growing alongside it, rather than simply hoping rising scheme spend lifts every provider equally.

Extreme fragmentation with almost no dominant players

No single provider holds more than roughly 1.3% of total scheme payments, and the combined top 25 providers account for only about 10% of the market. That level of fragmentation is unusual even by the standards of Australian small business, and it means a well-run regional or specialist provider retains genuine independent value rather than competing against an entrenched market leader. It also means buyers assess almost every acquisition on its own merits — referral diversity, registration status, staff retention and compliance history — rather than applying one blanket sector multiple.

Mandatory registration reform reshaping who can operate

From 1 July 2026, providers delivering Supported Independent Living or operating certain digital platforms must be registered with the NDIS Commission, with unregistered delivery in these categories now a criminal offence carrying penalties of up to two years' imprisonment. A parallel four-tier, risk-based registration model is also being phased in, and — directly relevant to any sale — a change of business ownership now triggers its own registration audit. For an owner in SIL or another soon-to-be-mandatory category, registration status is no longer a background compliance issue; it is close to a precondition for completing a sale at all, and buyers will factor the cost and time of a change-of-ownership audit directly into their offer and settlement timeline.

Founders approaching retirement with limited succession planning

Broader Australian data shows 1.4 million business owners are expected to retire by 2036, with a third having no succession plan in place, and disability services is no exception — many providers were founded by clinicians or support workers in the years after the scheme launched and are now reaching a natural exit point. That creates a genuine and growing pool of sale-ready businesses, but it also means competition among sellers is increasing. Owners who start preparing early — cleaning up compliance records, reducing founder dependence and diversifying referral sources — are in a materially stronger position than those who wait until retirement forces the decision.

A sector 30-40 years behind comparable markets in consolidation

With more than 68,000 allied health practitioners nationally and minimal M&A activity relative to comparable healthcare markets overseas, disability services remains an early-stage consolidation opportunity rather than a mature, fully-priced market. Private equity firms and listed consolidators recognise this gap, which is why buyers such as Healthia, Next Capital and MedHealth have all been willing to complete multiple acquisitions even without an established, widely-quoted market multiple to benchmark against. For an owner, this earlier stage of consolidation is a genuine opportunity — buyers are still forming their view of fair value, which rewards a business that can clearly demonstrate its own quality rather than relying on a market-wide price expectation.

Pricing pressure and rising financial distress across the sector

This demand story sits alongside real financial strain. Support coordination and plan management pricing has not increased for six consecutive years, therapy supports are explicitly not indexed to wages, and 67.1% of disability providers reported an operating loss in FY24, with the sector recording its first average loss on record in 2025. Insolvencies are up more than 200% since 2023, and allied health insolvencies specifically are up 467%. Perth-based Therapy Focus, a 12-clinic, 300-staff provider, entered voluntary administration in late 2025 citing NDIS pricing cuts. This is exactly why conservative multiples matter in this sector: buyers are acutely aware of margin pressure, and a business that cannot clearly show it is managing costs, staff turnover and pricing risk will be priced accordingly.

Wage and workforce cost pressure squeezing margins from the other direction

The Fair Work Commission's 2026 Annual Wage Review lifted award wages by 4.75% from 1 July 2026, and a separate Priority Awards Review is phasing in a further gender-equity adjustment of up to 23% for benchmark disability support classifications through to October 2027. With permanent staff turnover already at 16% — the highest since 2015 — and casual turnover at 26%, providers are absorbing rising labour costs at the same time as several of their core price caps remain frozen. For a business owner, demonstrating stable staffing, sensible wage cost management and a credible plan for absorbing these increases is now a real value driver, not a secondary consideration.

Active, well-capitalised buyers across several subsegments

Despite the pricing headwinds, buyers have kept transacting. nib Holdings has completed at least seven plan management and support coordination acquisitions since 2022. Healthia, MedHealth, Next Capital, Pemba Capital and Australian Unity have all been active in allied health, therapy and disability care staffing. Healthcare was cited as a priority sector by 28% of Australian private equity respondents in recent dealmaking surveys, and Australian mid-market M&A activity overall rose roughly 40% in 2025 even as total deal value softened. This tells owners that credible buyers exist across almost every subsegment covered in this report — the task is matching your business's registration status, referral mix and management depth to the buyer most likely to value it properly.

2026 Market Outlook: Timing, Trends, and Opportunities

2026 is a genuinely mixed but workable environment for NDIS and disability services business owners considering their options. The underlying funding pool is still growing, buyers remain active across plan management, allied health and disability care staffing, and mid-market M&A activity in Australia broadly has strengthened even as total deal value has softened. At the same time, this is a sector under real financial pressure, with frozen pricing in several categories, rising wage costs and a sharp increase in insolvencies. Both of these things are true simultaneously, and a well-prepared owner needs to plan with both in mind.

The businesses receiving the strongest buyer interest tend to share several features: current, unblemished NDIS Commission registration in the relevant categories; a referral base spread across multiple support coordinators, allied health networks and direct participant relationships rather than one or two large sources; staff turnover below the sector's elevated averages; clean audit history with no unresolved compliance findings; and a management team that can run the business day-to-day without the founder personally holding every key relationship. None of these are abstract ideas — they are the specific items a buyer's due diligence process will test before deciding how much to offer and how much of that offer to defer.

There are genuine headwinds to plan around. Mandatory SIL and digital-platform registration from 1 July 2026 will force some unregistered operators to either register quickly or exit. The "Securing the NDIS for Future Generations" reforms, including the "Thriving Kids" program redirecting some younger participants off the scheme, will change demand patterns in paediatric therapy over the coming years. Frozen pricing in support coordination and plan management, combined with rising wage costs, will continue to compress margins for providers that cannot demonstrate operational efficiency. The most practical response is the same one that applies across the whole Morgan Business Sales report series: prepare clean, current financials, document your registration and compliance position clearly, reduce founder dependence where you can, and use the time before you need to sell to build the kind of evidence base that lets a buyer price the business on its real strengths rather than on sector-wide headlines.

Key Operators

These organisations show the scale of active strategic buyers and major sector participants. The revenue and payment figures provide context only; they are not valuation benchmarks for a private mid-market business.

What Drives Value in NDIS and Disability Services Businesses

Registration Status and Compliance History

Registration with the NDIS Commission is one of the biggest single swing factors in this sector's valuations, and it is becoming more important, not less. From 1 July 2026, Supported Independent Living and certain digital platform providers must be registered, and any change of business ownership now triggers its own registration audit. A current registration with a clean compliance history and no unresolved audit findings is close to a floor requirement for a credible sale in these categories. Owners should treat their registration certificate, audit reports and any corrective action history as core sale-readiness material, reviewed and tidied well before approaching the market rather than assembled in a rush once a buyer asks.

Referral Source Diversification

A business that receives most of its participants from one support coordinator, one allied health network or one referring clinician carries real concentration risk, because that relationship may not transfer to a new owner. Buyers will ask how referrals are generated, how many distinct sources contribute meaningfully to revenue, and who within the business actually holds those relationships. Spreading referral sources across coordinators, GPs, schools, other allied health providers and direct participant enquiries — and documenting how each one is maintained — makes a business considerably easier to value with confidence.

NDIS Revenue Concentration and Funding Mix

Heavy reliance on NDIS-funded revenue, particularly above roughly 60% of total billings, is treated by buyers and valuers as a discount trigger, because it exposes the business directly to scheme policy changes, pricing freezes and participant plan reviews. A business with some diversification into private-pay, Home Care Package, aged care or other funding sources is viewed as lower risk than one entirely dependent on NDIS billing codes. This does not mean NDIS revenue is undesirable — it is the core of this sector — but owners should be able to show a buyer exactly how funding is sourced and what would happen if a particular price cap or eligibility rule changed.

Key-Person and Clinician Dependence

This is arguably the single most consistent driver of value across every subsegment covered in this report. A single-principal allied health practice or support coordination business typically prices at 2x-4x EBITDA, while a comparable multi-practitioner business with a genuine second layer of clinicians or coordinators can reach 4x-7x for exactly the same underlying service. Buyers are pricing in the risk that participants, referrers and even staff may leave if the founder does. Building a credible second line of practitioners or coordinators, documenting how work is allocated and client relationships are shared, and reducing the founder's day-to-day involvement are some of the most actionable steps an owner can take well before a sale.

Staff Turnover and Workforce Stability

With sector-wide permanent staff turnover running at 16% — the highest since 2015 — and casual turnover at 26%, workforce stability has become a genuine differentiator rather than a background HR metric. Buyers view turnover above roughly 40% as a clear warning sign, while turnover below 25% supports a stronger valuation outcome. Retention initiatives, clear career pathways, fair rostering and simply having a documented workforce plan all help demonstrate that the business can keep delivering services reliably after a change of ownership, which is exactly what a buyer is trying to assess.

Property and Lease Exposure in SIL and Accommodation

Supported Independent Living and accommodation businesses carry the widest valuation range of any subsegment in this report — roughly 3x to 6x EBITDA — precisely because property and lease arrangements vary so much from one business to the next. A provider with secure, well-documented leases or owned property, clear tenancy arrangements and demonstrated compliance with the incoming registration requirements will be valued very differently from one with short-term or informal accommodation arrangements. Owners in this subsegment should treat lease terms, property condition and Specialist Disability Accommodation compliance as core parts of their sale story, not a footnote to the participant numbers.

Frequently Asked Questions

Sources

1. NDIS Growth Team — NDIS statistics (payments, participants)
2. IBISWorld — National Disability Insurance Scheme Providers industry report
3. NDIA — Annual Financial Sustainability Report (AFSR) 2023-24
4. Michael West Media — NDIS provider registration analysis
5. Help Alliance — Top 25 largest NDIS providers in Australia 2026
6. Australian Bureau of Statistics — ANZSIC classification, Division Q Health Care and Social Assistance
7. ClinicComply — NDIS registration groups explained, 2026
8. The West Australian — APM's first results since $1.3 billion privatisation
9. MedHealth — Newsroom acquisition announcements
10. NDIS Quality and Safeguards Commission — Mandatory registration reform hub
11. nib Holdings — Maple Plan acquisition and nib Thrive launch
12. nib Holdings — Peak Plan Management and Connect Plan Management acquisitions
13. nib Holdings — All Disability Plan Management acquisition
14. nib Holdings — ASX announcement on MTGDM and Instacare acquisitions
15. AlayaCare — Nightingale Software acquisition announcement
16. APM Group — Everyday Independence acquisition announcement
17. ASX — APM Human Services International FY23 annual report (Everyday Independence consideration)
18. The Weekly Source — Australian Unity acquisition of Plena Healthcare
19. Next Capital — $100 million commitment to InterHealthcare
20. ASX — Healthia Ltd announcement of new acquisitions and settlements (disclosed EBITDA multiples)
21. Shaw and Partners — Healthia's acquisition of Back In Motion Group
22. ASX — Healthia Ltd FY23 annual report (Corio Bay Health Group, Kosmac & Clemens)
23. The Sentiment — Healthia's VIC/NSW clinic bundle acquisition
24. InterFinancial — Healthcare Dashboard, June 2024 (Healthia/InterHealthcare)
25. MedHealth — Real Therapy Solutions acquisition announcement
26. MedHealth — Pepper Kids Therapy acquisition announcement
27. MedHealth — Enunciate Allied Health Services acquisition announcement
28. MedHealth — Connect Allied Health acquisition announcement
29. AFR Street Talk — Partnered Health acquisition of New View Psychology
30. Bupa — Media release on acquisition of Partnered Health Group
31. AFR Street Talk — Bupa's acquisition of Partnered Health Group (implied EBITDA multiple)
32. Morgan Business Sales — Allied Health M&A Market Update, May 2025
33. Alliance Australia — Ability Plus Disability Services acquisition announcement
34. Australian Unity — myHomecare Group acquisition announcement
35. ABC News — Bedford creditors vote in favour of new operator
36. Miro Capital — How much is my NDIS business worth in Australia
37. Morgan Business Sales — Sold businesses (comparable transaction evidence)
38. Xcllusive Business Sales — Businesses for sale listings
39. Bsale — NDIS Core Supports provider listing
40. Miro Capital — How much is my healthcare business worth
41. StewartBrown — FY24 Disability Services Financial Benchmark Report
42. National Disability Services — State of the Disability Sector Report 2025
43. RSM Australia — 2025 NDIS Insolvency Report
44. The Guardian — Not-for-profit disability services closing amid frozen NDIS price caps
45. NDIS Quality and Safeguards Commission — NDIS Commission Reform Hub
46. Australian Financial Review — 1.4 million business owners will retire by 2036
47. Morgan Business Sales — Book a confidential consultation

Disclaimer: This report has been prepared by Morgan Business Sales for general information purposes only. It does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Transaction values, multiples, and market data are sourced from publicly available information and third-party research. Actual outcomes vary depending on individual business characteristics, market conditions, and negotiated terms. Readers should seek independent professional advice before making any business or investment decisions. Morgan Business Sales is not responsible for decisions made based on information contained in this report.