2026 Australian Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Sector M&A Report

By Morgan Business Sales | March 2026 | Australian M&A Advisory

The Australian agriculture, forestry and fishing sector — encompassing broadacre cropping, beef cattle, sheep and wool, dairy, horticulture, forestry and logging, wild-catch fishing, and aquaculture — stands at a genuine inflection point entering 2026. The sector achieved a gross production value of $100.3 billion in FY2024–25, the second highest on record in nominal terms and third highest in real terms, underpinned by strong livestock prices, a record winter crop harvest, and sustained export demand. Combined agriculture, fisheries and forestry production is forecast by ABARES to reach a record $107.4 billion in FY2025–26.

Executive Summary

The headline narrative is one of structural strength with pockets of normalisation. After three consecutive record-breaking production years from FY2020–21 to FY2022–23, the sector absorbed a dip in FY2023–24 driven by drier conditions and lower commodity prices before rebounding strongly in FY2024–25. Agricultural exports are forecast to reach $80.5 billion in FY2025–26 ($84.8 billion including fisheries and forestry), validating Australia's position as one of the world's premium food and fibre producers and reinforcing the structural case for long-term institutional investment in Australian agricultural assets.

Yet within this strong operating environment lies a rich and accelerating M&A landscape. The sector is experiencing its most active deal period in a decade, driven by three intersecting forces: unprecedented institutional and private equity appetite for food and agricultural infrastructure assets, a generational succession wave among family farming businesses, and the strategic imperative of multinational agribusiness corporations to control supply chains from paddock to port in an era of geopolitical trade uncertainty.

Three transactions define the 2025 M&A landscape. KKR's A$1.3 billion acquisition of ProTen — Australia's largest contract chicken grower — from Aware Super confirmed that global private equity now classifies agricultural infrastructure as a high-conviction asset class. The Bunge/Viterra $8.2 billion global mega-merger consolidated control of Australia's critical bulk grain storage and port export infrastructure in South Australia. And Cargill's full acquisition of Teys Australia (completed November 2025) gave the world's largest agribusiness end-to-end control of one of Australia's most significant beef processing and export platforms. These are not isolated events; they reflect a structural re-rating of Australian agricultural assets by global capital.

Businesses achieving premium M&A outcomes in 2025 share five defining characteristics:

• Export market integration — proven access to Asian markets (particularly China, Japan, South Korea, and South-East Asia) with documented supply relationships, export licences, and food safety accreditations; the export premium is the sector's most powerful valuation differentiator
• Scale and operational efficiency — farm size, equipment modernity, and documented productivity metrics that demonstrate output per hectare or per head above regional benchmarks
• Water security — owned water entitlements, secure irrigation infrastructure, and documented water allocation history; water rights are increasingly valued as a standalone asset class within agricultural transactions
• Environmental and sustainability credentials — carbon sequestration projects, biodiversity documentation, and sustainable land management practices that are increasingly embedded in institutional acquirer ESG mandates
• Management depth and operational independence — a retained management team and documented farm systems that allow the business to operate without the founding family; key-person dependency remains the single most common discount driver in agricultural M&A

Industry Overview

The Australian agriculture, forestry and fishing sector is one of the most strategically significant industries in the national economy, accounting for 2.2% of GDP (value added) in FY2024–25, 12.4% of goods and services exports ($80.2 billion in FY2024–25), and 57.1% of Australia's land use across 439 million hectares. The sector employs approximately 247,000 people in primary production (ABS Labour Force Survey, November 2025 average), with the broader Labour Account estimate including seasonal workers and secondary job-holders reaching 354,600 employed people.

The gross value of Australian agriculture, forestry and fisheries production reached $100.3 billion in FY2024–25, rebounding from a $78 billion result in FY2023–24 that reflected drier conditions and lower commodity prices. ABARES forecasts the combined gross production value will reach $107.4 billion in FY2025–26 — a new record — supported by a second consecutive large winter crop, strong livestock prices, and improving dairy returns. This growth trajectory has elevated Australia's agricultural sector to a rare position: achieving the National Farmers' Federation's $100 billion production value target four years ahead of the 2030 deadline.

The sector's export performance is foundational to its valuation narrative. Agricultural export value is forecast at $80.5 billion in FY2025–26, with the broader agriculture, fisheries and forestry export total reaching $84.8 billion. Australia's comparative advantages — biosecurity integrity, premium provenance positioning, proximity to Asian growth markets, and climate diversity across production zones — underpin an export premium that institutional acquirers are actively paying for when evaluating Australian agricultural assets against comparable global alternatives. Average arable land prices in Europe sit at approximately EUR 21,000 per hectare; comparable US farmland averages about USD 15,760 per hectare; Australian broadacre farmland averaged approximately AUD 9,400–9,600 per hectare in 2024, representing compelling relative value on a productivity-adjusted basis for international capital.

Farmland prices experienced a moderation in 2024 after extraordinary growth between 2019 and 2023. Rabobank's 2025 Farmland Price Outlook recorded a 6% decline in national median farmland prices in 2024, driven primarily by a 13% fall in grazing land values (reflecting the normalisation of cattle prices from the post-2021 restocking peak), while arable cropping land prices fell a more modest 2.6%. Over the previous five years, total farmland median values had grown 79% — meaning the 2024 correction represents a healthy consolidation rather than a structural reversal. The volume of broadacre farmland transactions declined from 4,445 transactions in 2021 to 2,258 transactions in 2024, reflecting vendor reluctance to sell at perceived cyclical lows rather than a collapse in buyer demand.

Sources: ABARES Snapshot of Australian Agriculture 2026 (February 2026); ABARES Agricultural Commodities Outlook (March 2026); Rabobank Australian Farmland Price Outlook 2025 (May 2025); ABARES Farmland Price Indicator (March 2025 update); ABS Labour Force Survey (November 2025); ABS Australian Agriculture Broadacre Crops (March 2026).

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Sector Snapshot — FY2024–25

Metric	Value	Context / M&A Relevance
Gross value of agricultural production (FY2024–25)	$88.3 billion	Second highest on record; strong rebound from FY2023–24 ($78b) driven by livestock & crops
Gross value incl. fisheries & forestry (FY2024–25)	$100.3 billion	Third highest in real terms; record forecast for FY2025–26 at $107.4 billion
Agricultural export value (FY2024–25)	$80.2 billion	12.4% of total goods and services exports; Asian markets dominant
Winter broadacre crop sales (FY2024–25)	$22.5 billion	61.1 million tonnes; wheat $10.1b; barley $3.7b; record or near-record volumes
Beef cattle farming revenue (FY2025e)	$26.2 billion	CAGR +1.5% over 5 years; strong export prices offsetting herd rebuild pressure
Horticulture (incl. wine grapes) local value (FY2023–24)	$18.0 billion	Fruit $6.8b; consistent growth driven by Asian export demand and domestic premiumisation
Fisheries & aquaculture production (FY2023–24)	$3.56 billion	Aquaculture 60% of value; salmonids dominant; projected real value steady to 2028–29
Forestry & logging revenue (FY2025e)	$4.1 billion	Flat growth; softwood structural timber demand softening; export value -5% forecast FY2025–26
Agricultural land area	369 million hectares	Down 5% from 2020–21; broadacre median price ~AUD 9,400–9,600/ha
Broadacre farmland transactions (2024)	2,258 transactions	Down from 4,445 in 2021; vendor reluctance at cyclical lows, not demand collapse
Median farmland price change (2024)	-6% nationally	Grazing -13%; arable cropping -2.6%; post-79% growth 2019–2023
Agricultural sector employment	~285,500 workers	1.9% of national workforce; Sheep/beef/grain 118,300; median wage $1,358/week
Foreign-owned agricultural land (2024)	49.12 million ha	First increase in two years; North American investors expanding rapidly
FIRB notification threshold (agricultural land)	$15 million cumulative	Agribusiness threshold: $55 million; zero threshold for foreign government investors

Sources: ABARES Snapshot of Australian Agriculture 2026; ABS Agricultural Land Use Survey; Rabobank Farmland Price Outlook 2025; Jobs and Skills Australia (November 2025); IBISWorld Beef Cattle Farming (2025); IBISWorld Forestry & Logging (2025); IBISWorld Aquaculture (2025); DAFF Australian Fisheries and Aquaculture Outlook 2024; ABARES Agricultural Commodities Forecast (March 2026).

Sector Structure & Business Profile

The Australian agriculture, forestry and fishing sector is characterised by an extraordinary structural duality: a relatively small number of large corporate and institutional farming operations coexist with a vast population of family-owned farming businesses. Of the estimated 85,000+ agricultural enterprises nationally, the overwhelming majority are family-owned and operated, with gross farm income below $1 million. However, the top decile of farms by size generates the majority of agricultural output — a concentration that reflects the capital intensity of modern broadacre farming and the scale required to achieve viable unit economics in commodity production.

Geographic distribution mirrors agro-climatic zones. Queensland and New South Wales dominate beef cattle and cropping respectively, Western Australia is the centre of the grain export industry (accounting for approximately 40% of national wheat production), Victoria leads in dairy, and South Australia and Western Australia share wine grape production. The Northern Territory and far north Queensland provide the backdrop for the extensive cattle station market, where large landholdings measured in hundreds of thousands of hectares are traded predominantly off-market among pastoral families, corporate stations, and increasingly, offshore institutional investors.

The sector's structural fragmentation is both its greatest M&A supply driver and its most significant risk factor for buyers. The 2024 ABS Agricultural Land Use survey recorded 369 million hectares of agricultural land nationally (down 5% from 2020–21), with farm numbers continuing a long-term consolidation trend as larger, more productive operators absorb neighbouring properties. This consolidation trend is expected to accelerate over the next decade as the succession pressure from ageing farm owners intersects with the capitalisation requirements of modern precision agriculture investment.

Employment & Productivity

The agriculture, forestry and fishing sector employs approximately 285,500 workers nationally (Jobs and Skills Australia, November 2025), representing approximately 1.9% of the total national workforce. Median weekly earnings of $1,358 are below the all-industries median of $1,741, reflecting the predominantly regional workforce, the prevalence of seasonal and part-time employment, and the significant proportion of owner-operators whose personal drawings may not be fully captured in wage statistics. Sheep, beef cattle and grain farming is the largest employing sub-sector at 118,300 workers, followed by fruit and tree nut growing (25,200), agriculture and fishing support services (23,300), and mushroom and vegetable growing (15,200).

Productivity in Australian agriculture has been a significant structural story over the past two decades. Total factor productivity in the sector has grown at approximately 1.0–1.5% per annum over the long run, driven by the adoption of precision agriculture technologies, improved genetics in both crops and livestock, and structural consolidation that has moved output toward larger, more efficient farming units. The productivity gap between technology-enabled large operators and traditional small family farms is widening — a dynamic that is creating both the consolidation rationale for acquirers and the financial pressure that is accelerating exit timelines for sub-scale operators.

Labour scarcity is an ongoing structural constraint. The combination of remote location, seasonal demand peaks, and the perceived lifestyle challenges of agricultural work has created chronic labour shortages across the sector, particularly in horticulture (seasonal harvest labour), the northern beef industry (station hands and stockmen), and aquaculture (skilled technicians). This scarcity is driving accelerated investment in automation — robotic harvesting, autonomous machinery, and AI-driven animal management systems — which is simultaneously improving productivity and creating new valuation differentiators for buyers seeking technology-enabled farming platforms.

Recent Transactions — Australian Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing (2023–2025)

The Australian agriculture, forestry and fishing M&A market operates across two distinct segments: the publicly visible large-cap transactions involving listed companies, institutional funds, and multinational agribusinesses, and a vast, predominantly off-market pipeline of family farm succession sales, rural property transactions, and private business transfers that rarely receive formal public disclosure. The transactions below represent publicly available deal data and informed market intelligence drawn from the landmark deals of 2025 and the broader transaction activity across the sector.

Business / Asset	Acquirer	Value (AUD)	Date	Strategic Rationale
KKR acquires ProTen — Australia's largest contract chicken grower; 700+ broiler sheds across 60 farms in five states; owned by Aware Super	KKR (via Asia Pacific Infrastructure Fund II; ~$13b AUM)	~A$1.3 billion	Jul 2025	PE reclassifies agri infrastructure as high-conviction asset; KKR cites 'infrastructure-aligned' characteristics of contracted poultry growing; benchmark for institutional re-rating of food production assets
Bunge / Viterra mega-merger (global); Viterra's Australian assets include 17 grain handling & storage facilities and South Australian bulk export network	Bunge Global SA (NYSE: BG)	US$8.2 billion (global deal)	Jul 2025	Creates one of world's largest agribusiness firms; consolidates control of Viterra's SA grain export infrastructure; strategic consequence for Australian grain producers' market access and pricing
Cargill acquires full ownership of Teys Australia — one of Australia's largest beef processors and exporters; seven processing plants; from Teys family (50:50 JV buyout)	Cargill (private; world's largest agribusiness)	Undisclosed (est. significant)	Nov 2025	End-to-end supply chain control — feedlots, abattoirs, export channels; traceability and sustainability compliance now commercially critical; family succession and full corporate control the exit driver
PSP Investments (Canada) buys out co-investors in Kooba Aggregation, western NSW — cotton, cropping, livestock & almond assets	PSP Investments (Canadian pension fund)	~A$500 million	2025	Institutional farmland as infrastructure; Canadian pension capital active in Australian premium cropping; scale and water entitlement security key to institutional pricing
Stanbroke Pastoral acquires Rangers Valley — grain-fed beef & feedlot business, northern NSW	Stanbroke Pastoral Company	~A$400 million	2025	Vertical integration into premium grain-fed beef; branded product story for Asian export premium markets; feedlot + processing capability under single ownership
Agricultural property portfolio — leading agribusinesses across multiple states	Undisclosed institutional acquirer (off-market)	~A$444 million	Dec 2025	Off-market portfolio transaction; institutional capital accumulating diversified agricultural production assets at scale; succession and portfolio restructure driven
Aroona Station, NT — 147,510 ha cattle property, formerly owned by Gina Rinehart (Hancock Prospecting), 15,000 head mixed-aged cattle	Cross Pacific Investments (Buratovich family, Argentina)	A$44 million	Mar 2026	South American agricultural family expanding Australian northern pastoral footprint to 756,000 ha across 5 NT properties; broadacre cropping and cattle diversification strategy
Macquarie Asset Management acquires controlling stake in Fresh Produce Group — one of Australia's largest fresh produce providers	Macquarie Asset Management	~A$175 million	FY2024	Fresh produce as essential consumer infrastructure; PE/infrastructure capital entering horticulture supply chain; consolidation of distribution and logistics at scale
Costa Group take-private — ASX-listed berry, citrus and tomato grower/marketer	Consortium led by Paine Schwartz Partners	A$2.5 billion	Feb 2024	Largest Australian agribusiness public-to-private in recent memory; premium horticulture brand commanding institutional premium; export market integration and vertical production model the core thesis
Multiple family farm succession sales — broadacre cropping, grazing, dairy, horticulture, national	Neighbouring operators, institutional platforms, family office consolidators	Typically $2m – $20m	2023–2025 (ongoing)	Founder retirements and succession events creating steady off-market pipeline; ageing farm owner demographic (median age 57) accelerating exit timelines; off-market transactions dominant

Sources: Reuters/Yahoo Finance (KKR/ProTen, July 2025); Cargill/Teys announcements (June & November 2025); World-Grain.com/Reuters (Bunge/Viterra, July 2025); Agri Investor (PSP/Kooba, Aroona Station); FarmlandGrab.org; ANZ M&A is back in FBA (October 2025); Allens Food, Beverage & Agribusiness M&A Insight (December 2024); Morgan Business Sales market intelligence.

Market Analysis & Key Insights

Commodity Mix: Where Value is Made Across the Sector

Beef cattle farming dominates agricultural revenue at an estimated $26.2 billion (IBISWorld FY2025e), reflecting Australia's position as one of the world's largest beef exporters. The sector has benefited from sustained strong cattle prices and robust export demand from Japan, South Korea, China, and the United States, though the post-2021 herd rebuild cycle — where producers retain breeding stock rather than selling for processing — is beginning to constrain supply volumes and processor throughput, contributing to projected flat revenue in FY2025–26.

Grain growing ($21.5 billion IBISWorld FY2024–25 estimate, +11.0% CAGR over five years) is the sector's outstanding growth story of the current cycle. Australia produced 61.1 million tonnes of winter broadacre crops in FY2024–25 with a combined local value of $22.5 billion — wheat alone contributing $10.1 billion on 34.8 million tonnes. Profit margins remain solid at 31.9% in FY2024–25, though IBISWorld projects a moderation in revenue over the next five years as commodity prices normalise. The emerging opportunity in grain-derived biofuels, bioplastics, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) offers alternative revenue diversification for large grain producers.

Horticulture ($18.0 billion local value in FY2023–24) is the sector's most dynamic and investor-attractive sub-segment for M&A purposes. The combination of export premium positioning (Australian berries, citrus, table grapes, and almonds command significant Asian market premiums), biophilic consumer trends, and the emergence of large-scale controlled-environment and protected cropping operations is creating a new class of institutional-grade horticultural asset. The Costa Group take-private at $2.5 billion in 2024 established a clear ceiling for premium horticulture valuations.

Dairy ($4–5 billion farm-gate value estimate), wool, sheep meat, and aquaculture round out the commodity mix. Dairy has experienced significant structural rationalisation over the past decade, with the national herd shrinking and farm numbers declining as scale requirements have increased. The sector's FY2024–25 average farm income has rebounded for dairy producers following improved farmgate milk prices and seasonal conditions. Aquaculture ($2.8 billion IBISWorld FY2025e, +3.7% CAGR) is the most consistently growing sub-segment, with salmonid aquaculture in Tasmania — led by Huon Aquaculture (now part of JBS) and Tassal (now part of Cooke Inc.) — having already undergone significant offshore consolidation.

The Export Premium Paradox: Access, Dependency & Pricing Power

Export market integration is the single most powerful valuation driver in Australian agricultural M&A — and the most complex to assess in due diligence. Australia exports approximately 70% of its agricultural production by value, with Asian markets (particularly Japan, South Korea, China, Indonesia, and South-East Asia) absorbing the majority of beef, wheat, wool, dairy, seafood, and premium horticulture. Access to these markets through free trade agreements — including the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement (ChAFTA), the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and the Australia-UK Free Trade Agreement — provides structural export framework; but actual market access is determined by regulatory compliance, food safety accreditation, and supply relationship continuity.

For M&A purposes, export market access is a double-edged sword: agricultural businesses with documented, accredited, long-standing export supply relationships command a meaningful multiple premium over domestically-focused peers. However, buyers are conducting increasingly rigorous due diligence on the transferability of export relationships, the stability of trade policy settings (particularly for China-dependent supply chains), and the food safety certification status of the operation. The ideal acquisition profile for institutional buyers is 40–65% export revenue — high enough to validate premium provenance and pricing power, but diversified enough across export markets and domestic channels to cap single-country trade risk.

Water Rights: The Hidden Asset Class Within Agricultural M&A

Water entitlements have emerged as the most materially under-valued asset in many Australian agricultural transactions. Across the Murray-Darling Basin, Queensland's irrigation districts, and Western Australia's agricultural water licence system, water rights are traded in separate markets from underlying land and can represent 20–40% of the total enterprise value of an irrigated farming business. Water allocation prices have grown significantly over the past decade, with Murray-Darling entitlements regularly trading at prices that would have seemed extraordinary a generation ago.

For M&A purposes, the valuation of water rights requires specialist input: entitlement type (high-security vs. general security), reliability of allocation under climate variability, infrastructure condition (irrigation system, pump capacity, storage), and the regulatory framework governing trade and carryover all materially affect the value of the water asset. Buyers increasingly treat water entitlements as a separate line item in their valuation model — comparable to the way commercial property buyers value car parking entitlements attached to a building. Sellers who have not obtained a current independent water valuation frequently leave material value on the table.

The Carbon & Sustainability Opportunity: New Value Creation for Agricultural Assets

Australia's emerging carbon farming market is creating a new and potentially transformative value layer for agricultural landholders. The Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) framework, managed under the Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF), allows farmers and land managers to earn carbon credits through activities including soil carbon sequestration, vegetation management, avoided land clearing, and sustainable grazing practices. With the Australian Government's Safeguard Mechanism creating domestic corporate demand for ACCUs, the market has grown significantly and created material additional revenue streams for participating landholders.

For M&A purposes, carbon projects registered on rural properties are increasingly appearing as value-creating assets in agricultural transactions — either as existing revenue streams (typically 7–15 year project agreements) or as identified development opportunities that buyers are pricing into acquisition values. ABARES forecasts that agricultural revenue is expected to increase by 39% between 2025 and 2050, with carbon sequestration activity offsetting a 2% displacement of agricultural production — suggesting that the carbon and agriculture interface will become structurally more important over the next decade. Australia's first Sustainable Finance Taxonomy (2024) is expected to further accelerate sustainable capital flows into agricultural assets that can demonstrate measurable environmental outcomes.

Biosecurity: The $50b Risk That Every Acquirer Must Assess

Biosecurity represents the agriculture sector's most material and least-priced systemic risk. Australia's biosecurity integrity — its freedom from foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), African swine fever (ASF), and a range of other endemic pests and diseases present in all major competitor countries — underpins the export premium that Australian beef, pork, lamb, and horticultural products command in Asian markets. A single FMD incursion, modelled in 2023 by the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, would cost the Australian economy an estimated $50 billion over ten years and trigger immediate market access restrictions from Australia's major trading partners.

For buyers, biosecurity due diligence has become a non-negotiable component of agricultural transaction assessment. Any operation with recent international livestock imports, proximity to international traveller pathways, significant use of seasonal international harvest labour, or supply chain connections to countries with active exotic disease outbreaks requires specific biosecurity risk assessment. The Australian Government's biosecurity levy framework, ongoing investment in border protection, and the farm-level BioSecurity Risk Assessment process are all relevant to property-level biosecurity due diligence. Buyers who understand biosecurity risk and can accurately price management protocols have a genuine advantage over less-informed market participants.

Landmark Transactions — Deep Analysis

The following transactions stand as the defining M&A events for the Australian agriculture, forestry and fishing sector in 2025, with implications that extend across the full sector M&A landscape.

KKR / ProTen — A$1.3 Billion, July 2025

Transaction Overview	Details
Transaction	Acquisition of ProTen Pty Limited by KKR-managed funds (via Asia Pacific Infrastructure Fund II); completion announced July 2025
Value	A$1.3 billion (implied; Agri Investor reporting)
Vendor	Aware Super — Australian superannuation fund
Acquirer	KKR — global PE and infrastructure firm; Asia Pacific Infrastructure Fund II (~A$13 billion AUM since 2019)
Target business	ProTen — founded 2001; Australia's largest contract chicken grower; develops, owns and operates farm infrastructure supporting the poultry supply chain; 700+ broiler sheds across 60 farms in five states
M&A significance	Largest agricultural infrastructure PE acquisition in Australia in 2025. Establishes KKR's explicit framing of agricultural infrastructure as a 'high-conviction thematic' — redefining how global capital classifies protein production assets
Multiple signal	Infrastructure-style valuation applied to agricultural production; confirms that contracted, essential food production assets can attract infrastructure multiples (8–12x EBITDA) from the right class of buyer

What this transaction means for the broader agriculture M&A market:

• PE has fundamentally re-classified food production infrastructure. KKR's explicit categorisation of ProTen as an 'agricultural infrastructure' asset — funded through an infrastructure vehicle, not a PE buyout fund — is a watershed moment. It signals that contracted, essential food production with predictable cash flows, long-term supply agreements with major processors, and hard asset backing can access infrastructure capital at infrastructure multiples. For Australian protein producers across poultry, pork, and aquaculture, this is a fundamental re-rating signal.
• Superannuation as a patient agricultural seller. Aware Super's exit from ProTen after a period of patient capital stewardship illustrates the 'infrastructure investor to PE infrastructure' transition pathway. Australian superannuation funds hold significant unlisted agricultural assets and will continue to review their portfolios as markets evolve and liquidity requirements change — creating structured sale processes for some of Australia's best-managed agricultural platforms.
• The exit multiple ceiling for protein infrastructure has been reset. An implied infrastructure-style valuation for ProTen recalibrates what is achievable for scaled, contracted protein production assets across the agricultural value chain. Operators who build contractual supply infrastructure, scale across multiple sites, and demonstrate consistent returns can attract a class of buyer who was previously not active in Australian agriculture.

Bunge / Viterra Mega-Merger — US$8.2 Billion, July 2025

The completion of Bunge's US$8.2 billion global merger with Glencore-backed Viterra on 2 July 2025 was one of the most consequential agribusiness events for Australia in the 2025 calendar year. Viterra operated more than 10 million tonnes of grain storage capacity in Australia and controlled a critical component of South Australia's bulk grain export infrastructure — including port and storage assets that are integral to Australia's wheat export capability. The merger, which took more than two years to complete and required regulatory clearances from China, the EU, Canada, and other markets, created one of the world's largest agribusiness firms with more than $100 billion in total revenues.

For Australian grain producers and the domestic M&A market, the transaction's significance lies in the consolidation of market access infrastructure: Bunge's combined entity now controls grain origination, storage, port, and export channel assets across Australia that were previously operated under Viterra's independent network. The practical implications for M&A pricing of grain-related agribusiness assets — including on-farm storage, silos, and logistics infrastructure — are significant, as the buyer universe for these assets has shifted.

Cargill / Teys Australia — Full Acquisition, November 2025

Transaction Overview	Details
Transaction	Cargill purchases all issued share capital of Teys Investments from the Teys family shareholders, converting a 50:50 joint venture into 100% Cargill ownership; completed 6 November 2025
Vendor	The Teys family (Brad Teys and family shareholders) — 75-year Australian beef industry legacy; family succession and partnership evolution the exit driver
Acquirer	Cargill — world's largest privately held agribusiness; complete ownership of Teys Australia and Teys USA
Target business	Teys Australia — one of Australia's largest beef processors and exporters; seven processing plants across QLD, NSW, VIC, and SA; feedlot, abattoir, and export operations
Strategic rationale	End-to-end supply chain control from feedlot through processing to export; traceability, sustainability, and logistics are commercially critical for premium Asian beef market access; family succession after 75-year business history
M&A significance	Illustrates the vertical integration imperative for multinational food companies: supply chain control, not just volume, is the strategic objective. Family succession in multi-generational processing businesses creates genuine exit opportunities even for iconic brands

Transactional Pattern Analysis

Analysis of agriculture, forestry and fishing transactions over the 2023–2025 period — combining ABARES data, ACCC clearance records, ASX announcements, and Morgan Business Sales market intelligence — reveals five distinct transactional patterns that define the current M&A landscape.

Pattern 1: The Succession Wave is Accelerating

The most powerful deal driver in the sector's small-to-mid market is demographic, not economic. The average Australian farm operator is 57 years old — the oldest average age of any industry workforce group in the national economy — and the proportion of farm businesses without a documented succession plan is estimated at over 50% by the National Farmers' Federation. The next decade will see the largest generational transfer of agricultural assets in Australian history, as the post-war and baby boomer cohort of farm founders and second-generation operators transitions ownership to their successors or to the open market.

The succession wave has a specific M&A character in agriculture that differs from other sectors: the transfer of a family farm is rarely a purely commercial transaction. Legacy, identity, community standing, and the future of the land are all factors that influence vendor decision-making. This means that off-market processes — where vendors can control timing, confidentiality, and counterparty selection — dominate the sub-$20 million segment. Advisors who can provide market intelligence, comparable transaction data, and a curated buyer introduction process without triggering a formal tender are consistently achieving better outcomes than those who default to public listing as the primary marketing strategy.

Pattern 2: Institutional Capital Pursuing the 'Farmland as Infrastructure' Thesis

The re-classification of prime agricultural land as an infrastructure-adjacent asset by global pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and infrastructure fund managers represents the most structurally significant shift in the Australian agricultural M&A market over the past decade. The institutional thesis is straightforward: high-quality farmland provides inflation-linked returns (farm income tied to commodity prices that generally track global inflation), hard asset backing that provides capital preservation, and diversification characteristics that make it valuable in multi-asset institutional portfolios.

North American investors — particularly Canadian pension funds (PSP Investments, CDPQ, Farmers Business Network-backed vehicles) and US-based agricultural investment managers (Nuveen Natural Capital, Hancock Natural Resource Group) — have been the most active international buyers of Australian farmland in 2024–25, with the area of Australian agricultural land with some level of foreign ownership increasing by 1.6 million hectares to 49.12 million hectares in 2024. The average price competitiveness of Australian farmland on a productivity-adjusted basis remains a key attraction: Australian broadacre farmland at approximately AUD 9,400–9,600 per hectare compares favourably with European arable land at approximately EUR 21,000 per hectare and US farmland at approximately USD 15,760 per hectare.

Pattern 3: Multinational Agribusiness Consolidating Supply Chain Control

The Cargill/Teys and Bunge/Viterra transactions reflect a broader strategic imperative among multinational agribusiness corporations: in an era of geopolitical trade uncertainty, climate-driven supply disruptions, and consumer demand for food provenance and sustainability verification, end-to-end supply chain control is a strategic necessity rather than an option. Australian agricultural assets are particularly valuable components of these supply chain integration strategies because of Australia's biosecurity integrity, free trade agreement network, geographic proximity to Asian demand growth markets, and the premium provenance positioning that Australian-origin food products command.

This pattern will continue to shape M&A activity in the mid-to-large segment of the market. Processing, storage, and logistics infrastructure — the 'toll road' assets between the farm and the export market — are the primary targets for multinational strategic acquirers. Farm-level production assets are increasingly relevant to this strategy where they provide raw material supply security for downstream processing operations.

Pattern 4: Private Equity Building Protein Platforms

The KKR/ProTen transaction has catalysed a broader PE interest in Australian protein production infrastructure. The investment thesis — that contracted food production with long-term supply agreements, hard asset backing, and essential consumer demand characteristics can be valued and financed as infrastructure rather than as cyclical agriculture — is now being applied across the protein value chain: poultry, pork, aquaculture, and branded beef operations all share characteristics that make them attractive to infrastructure-oriented PE investors.

The Grant Thornton Agribusiness Dealtracker noted that mid-sized deals involving processing, logistics and supply platforms represented the strongest segment of FBA M&A activity in the year to May 2025. Private equity firms including PAG, Quadrant, Anchorage, and Allegro are actively evaluating food production and processing assets in Australia, attracted by the combination of defensive demand characteristics, export growth optionality, and the management professionalisation value-add that PE ownership can deliver to family-run food businesses.

Pattern 5: ESG and Carbon as Transaction Catalysts and Value Creators

The intersection of Australia's Sustainable Finance Taxonomy, the ACCU carbon farming framework, and the institutional ESG mandates of the world's largest agricultural acquirers is creating a new and growing ESG/carbon dimension in agricultural M&A. For institutional buyers, the ability to document and report on the environmental performance of a farm portfolio — carbon sequestration, water efficiency, biodiversity outcomes, and greenhouse gas intensity per unit of production — is becoming a prerequisite for allocating capital under their fund-level ESG frameworks.

Sellers who have invested in sustainability certification, carbon projects, or biodiversity documentation are commanding premiums from this buyer class. Conversely, operations with poor environmental records, significant land clearing history, or documented regulatory non-compliance are experiencing material valuation discounts as ESG-conscious buyers apply exclusionary screens. The ESG dimension is most pronounced in the large-cap institutional segment but is moving down the market as smaller regional funds and family offices apply similar frameworks.

M&A Transaction Trends

Volume, Structure & Deal Dynamics

The Australian agriculture, forestry and fishing M&A market in 2023–2025 is characterised by a bifurcated dynamic: large-cap deal activity is robust and accelerating, while small-to-mid market transaction volumes have moderated from the post-COVID peak as vendor price expectations have adjusted more slowly than market conditions. The ANZ Institutional FBA M&A analysis noted significant momentum in mid-sized deals involving processing, logistics and supply platforms through 2025, and the year to May 2025 was described as 'a busy one for FBA transactions in Australia'.

Key transaction structure observations in 2025:

• Earn-out provisions are common in horticulture and aquaculture transactions — where export market access, regulatory approvals, and seasonal production variability create genuine earn-out opportunities tied to export volume targets, accreditation renewals, or commodity price benchmarks.
• Water entitlement separation is increasingly structured as a distinct transaction component — with water rights sometimes retained by vendors, sold to water brokers, or packaged separately to enable valuation and financing clarity for the operating farm business.
• FIRB compliance is a standard process overhead for any transaction involving foreign buyers — the $15 million cumulative threshold for agricultural land ensures that even modestly-sized international buyers of Australian farmland must navigate the foreign investment review process, which typically adds 30–60 days to transaction timelines.
• Due diligence scope has expanded significantly — biosecurity compliance, water licence documentation, carbon project registration, export accreditation currency, land use permit status, and environmental management plan currency are all now standard requirements for transactions above $5 million, extending average deal timelines to 90–150 days for complex properties.

Investment intentions among Australian agricultural operators are bifurcating along scale lines. Large, productive operators with strong balance sheets are investing actively in precision agriculture technology — autonomous machinery, variable rate application, soil sensors, and farm management systems — that is improving yields, reducing input costs, and creating operational data trails that sophisticated acquirers value highly during due diligence. Sub-scale operators, by contrast, are deferring capital expenditure as they navigate the combination of normalising commodity prices, higher input costs, and the rising psychological weight of succession planning.

This investment bifurcation creates a post-acquisition capital expenditure consideration that buyers must factor into their valuation models: properties coming to market from deferral-mode operators will require near-term investment in infrastructure, equipment, and technology. Buyers who accurately assess this requirement and structure their offer price accordingly — rather than discovering the need post-completion — achieve materially better investment outcomes.

Sector-Specific Analysis

The Australian agriculture, forestry and fishing sector comprises five distinct sub-segments, each with its own operational model, buyer universe, valuation drivers, and M&A dynamics. Understanding these differences is essential for both vendors preparing for sale and acquirers evaluating targets.

1. Broadacre Farming — Grain, Beef Cattle & Mixed Enterprises

The largest sub-segment by land area and a major contributor to export revenue, broadacre farming encompasses grain growing (wheat, barley, canola, oats, sorghum), beef cattle stations, sheep and wool enterprises, and mixed farming operations combining multiple commodities. The $26.2 billion beef cattle segment and $21.5 billion grain growing segment together represent the engine room of Australian agricultural production and the primary focus of institutional farmland investment.

Factor	Detail
Revenue contribution	Beef cattle ~$26.2b (IBISWorld FY2025e); grain ~$21.5b (IBISWorld FY2024–25); combined largest segment by value
Key customers	Domestic processors (Cargill/Teys, JBS Australia, NH Foods, Thomas Foods), grain exporters (Bunge/Viterra, CBH, GrainCorp), Japanese/Korean beef importers
Valuation approach	Primarily asset-based (land + water + plant + livestock); EBITDA methodology secondary; institutional buyers use capitalised net income or discounted cash flow
Indicative EBITDA range	4.0–7.0x EBITDA for productive mixed enterprises; 5.0–9.0x for premium cropping with export capability and water security
Primary value drivers	Land quality and productive capacity; water entitlement ownership and reliability; equipment modernity; export accreditation; scale and geographic position relative to port/processor
Key risks	Commodity price cycles; rainfall variability and climate exposure; livestock disease; biosecurity incursion risk; input cost inflation (fuel, fertiliser, chemicals)
M&A outlook 2025–26	Active institutional buyer demand for premium broadacre assets; succession pipeline growing; transaction volumes below 2021 peak but deal quality improving

2. Horticulture — Fruit, Vegetables, Nuts & Wine Grapes

The most dynamic and investor-attractive agricultural sub-segment for M&A purposes, horticulture encompasses fruit growing (berries, citrus, tropical fruits, stone fruits), vegetables, nuts (almonds, macadamias, pistachios), wine grapes, and controlled-environment production (glasshouse tomatoes, lettuce, herbs). The $18.0 billion local value of horticulture production in FY2023–24 is growing consistently, driven by Asian export demand, domestic premiumisation, and the expansion of large-scale protected cropping operations.

Factor	Detail
Market value (FY2023–24)	$18.0 billion local value (incl. wine grapes); fruit $6.8 billion; consistent annual growth
Key demand drivers	Asian export market access (Japan, China, South Korea, South-East Asia); premiumisation of Australian produce; biosecurity provenance premium; domestic consumer health trends
Valuation range	4.0–5.5x EBITDA (domestic-focused; seasonal labour dependency); 5.5–8.0x EBITDA (premium export-accredited with branded product and retail supply contract)
Primary value drivers	Export market accreditation and relationship depth; water entitlement security; retail supply contract quality; branded product premium; protected cropping infrastructure condition
Key risks	Labour scarcity for harvest operations; seasonal weather (frost, hail, drought); export market regulatory changes; retail supplier concentration risk; pest and disease (fruit fly, citrus canker)
M&A outlook 2025–26	Highest PE and institutional M&A interest of any agricultural sub-segment; Costa Group take-private validated premium ceiling; vertical integration from production to retail supply creating new buyer class

3. Dairy Farming

The Australian dairy industry has undergone significant structural rationalisation over the past decade, with national farm numbers declining and the national herd contracting as scale requirements have increased and farmgate milk pricing has been under pressure. Victoria remains the dominant dairy production state, followed by Tasmania, South Australia, and New South Wales. Average farm incomes for dairy rebounded in FY2024–25, driven by improved farmgate milk prices and favourable seasonal conditions in key regions.

Factor	Detail
Market context	Farm-gate value ~$4–5b estimate; significant structural rationalisation over the past decade; Victorian farms dominate production
Key customers	Fonterra (NZ), Saputo (Canada), Lactalis (France), Norco (domestic co-op), Bega Cheese — processor concentration is high; farmgate pricing power historically weak
Valuation range	3.5–5.0x EBITDA for established dairy enterprise; water entitlement adds 10–30% to total enterprise value in irrigated regions; land quality and herd genetics affect floor
Primary value drivers	Milk volume and quality consistency; supply contract tenure with processor; water entitlement and irrigation infrastructure; herd genetics and production per cow; proximity to processor
Key risks	Farmgate milk price exposure; labour scarcity; environmental regulation (nutrient management, waterway protection); processor consolidation reducing competition for milk
M&A outlook 2025–26	Moderate buyer demand; rationalisation continues; Coles acquisition of Saputo fresh-milk plants signals retailer interest in production control; NZ and European buyers active

4. Aquaculture & Commercial Fishing

Aquaculture is the most consistently growing sub-segment within the broader fishing and aquaculture sector, with revenue of $2.8 billion (IBISWorld FY2025e) growing at a 3.7% CAGR. Salmonid aquaculture (Atlantic salmon and ocean trout, primarily in Tasmania) is the dominant species by value, followed by prawns, oysters, abalone, barramundi, and tuna. The sector has already experienced significant offshore consolidation at the large-cap level, with Huon Aquaculture acquired by JBS (Brazil) and Tassal acquired by Cooke Inc. (Canada) in landmark transactions that established premium offshore buyer interest in Australian aquaculture platforms.

Factor	Detail
Market size (FY2025e)	$2.8 billion aquaculture; $3.56 billion total fisheries and aquaculture; aquaculture growing to 64% of total production value by 2028–29
Key demand drivers	Global protein demand growth; Asian consumer seafood preference; biosecurity premium (disease-free Australian product); domestic premium seafood market
Valuation range	4.0–6.0x EBITDA for smaller licensed operators; 6.0–9.0x EBITDA for scaled, accredited operations with export market integration and licensed site security
Primary value drivers	Aquaculture licence and site lease security; species and production accreditation (GlobalG.A.P., ASC); export market integration; water quality and site conditions; management capability
Key risks	Environmental licence conditions; wild weather and site disruption; disease outbreak; water quality deterioration; regulatory change in licence conditions
M&A outlook 2025–26	Active offshore buyer interest (Japanese, North American, European seafood companies); licence scarcity creating premium valuations; site security a key acquirer focus in due diligence

5. Forestry, Logging & Timber

The Australian forestry and logging sector ($4.1 billion IBISWorld FY2025e) is experiencing a period of flat growth, with softwood structural timber demand softening in line with the residential construction downturn and forestry export value forecast to fall 5% to $2.74 billion in FY2025–26 (ABARES). Native forestry has been subject to significant state-level policy restriction — Victoria and Western Australia have effectively ended most native forest harvesting — shifting the sector toward plantation timber, which now dominates industry output. The ESG characteristics of plantation forestry — carbon sequestration, sustainable certification, and renewable timber supply — are driving growing institutional interest in forestry as an ESG-compliant infrastructure asset.

Factor	Detail
Market size (FY2025e)	$4.1 billion IBISWorld; forestry export value $2.74 billion (FY2025–26 forecast, down 5%)
Key demand drivers	Residential and commercial construction activity (structural timber); packaging and paper; bioenergy and carbon sequestration; ESG-driven institutional timber investment
Valuation range	7.0–12.0x EBITDA for managed investment scheme (MIS) plantation assets with long-term supply agreements; land value underpins floor; carbon project registration adds value layer
Primary value drivers	Plantation age profile and yield data; sustainable certification (FSC, PEFC); supply agreement quality; land tenure; proximity to processing and port infrastructure; carbon project registration
Key risks	Bushfire risk; market price volatility for timber and woodchip; construction cycle exposure; native forest policy changes affecting competitor supply; ESG risk from legacy native forest history
M&A outlook 2025–26	Growing institutional interest as ESG asset class; carbon/forestry intersection creating new value; construction downturn headwind for near-term timber demand; specialist buyers only

Valuation Benchmarks by Transaction Type

Transaction Type	Typical Value Range	Driver	Typical Multiple	Buyer Profile
Broadacre cropping aggregation (multi-property)	$20m – $200m+	Institutional land banking; succession; scale consolidation	12–20x revenue (land-based); 5–7x EBITDA (business component)	Pension funds; infrastructure funds; corporate farming platforms
Beef cattle station / pastoral property	$5m – $100m+	Succession; beef price cycle; institutional aggregation	Land + livestock + plant value; limited pure EBITDA application	Corporate pastoral companies; family offices; offshore investors (via FIRB)
Premium horticulture (berries, citrus, table grapes)	$5m – $100m	Export growth; succession; scale for retail supply contract	5–8x EBITDA; premium for export accreditation	PE funds; food company strategic buyers; institutional platforms
Dairy farm (income-producing, Victorian/Tasmanian)	$3m – $25m	Succession; farm income normalisation; processor rationalisation	3.5–5.5x EBITDA; water entitlement a separate value layer	Neighbouring operators; corporate dairy platforms; NZ/European buyers
Aquaculture (salmon, oyster, prawn, barramundi)	$2m – $50m+	Global protein demand; succession; scale requirement for food safety compliance	4–7x EBITDA; premium for accredited, licensed operations	Global seafood companies; PE; superannuation; Japanese buyers
Timber plantation / forestry asset	$5m – $50m+	Institutional ESG (carbon, timber); succession; RE-investment	7–12x EBITDA for MIS assets; land value underpins	REITs; timber companies; carbon funds; superannuation
Sub-scale family farm (single enterprise)	$500k – $5m	Succession; farm cash income below threshold; health	Asset-based (land + plant); limited EBITDA methodology relevance	Neighbouring operators; first-generation farmers; lifestyle buyers

EBITDA Multiple Range Summary

Sub-segment	EBITDA Range	Key Drivers of Upper Range	Key Drivers of Lower Range
Sub-scale family farm (single enterprise, <$1m EBITDA)	4–6x asset-based + goodwill	3-year track record above cost of production; strong land quality; modern equipment; documented management systems	Unverified owner drawings; deteriorating land; ageing equipment; no succession capability
Productive broadacre enterprise ($1m–3m EBITDA)	5.0–7.0x EBITDA	Export accreditation; water security; scale >2,000ha cropping; consistent above-benchmark yields	Revenue dependent on single commodity; no water security; leased rather than owned land
Premium horticulture (export-accredited, $1m–5m EBITDA)	5.5–8.0x EBITDA	Export market relationships; retail supply contract; proprietary variety or branded product; irrigation security	Labour scarcity in harvest; single market export concentration; older infrastructure; weather exposure
Beef cattle / pastoral station ($1m–5m EBITDA)	4.0–6.5x EBITDA (or capitalised net income)	Rainfall reliability; herd quality; water infrastructure; proximity to processors; scale >5,000 head	Extensive system (low stocking density); limited water; remote from processing; single climate zone exposure
Aquaculture / fishing (licensed, $500k–3m EBITDA)	4.5–7.0x EBITDA	Licensed site security; export accreditation; species with strong demand growth; management independence	Single site; licence renewal risk; water quality exposure; management key-person dependency
Agri-processing / supply chain asset (>$3m EBITDA)	6.0–10.0x EBITDA	Long-term processing/supply contracts; geographic coverage; multi-client base; management depth	Single processor customer; commodity price exposure at processing margin; capex deferral

Valuation Methodologies & Market Pricing

Agriculture, forestry and fishing businesses are valued using a more complex methodology mix than most other sectors, reflecting the unique combination of land assets, biological assets (crops, livestock, timber), water entitlements, operational business value, and export market positioning that determines total enterprise value. Understanding which methodology a buyer will apply — and how to optimise the business presentation for each — is central to achieving a premium outcome.

EBITDA Multiple Methodology (Primary for Operating Businesses)

EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation) multiples are the primary valuation methodology for established farm businesses, food processing operations, aquaculture platforms, and agribusinesses with documented, normalised earnings. For private market transactions in the $2–50 million enterprise value range, multiples typically run below public company benchmarks, with the quantum of discount reflecting size, liquidity, key-person concentration, and commodity price cycle positioning.

Sources: ANZ Institutional FBA insights (October 2025); Allens FBA M&A Insight (December 2024); Morgan Business Sales market intelligence; ABARES; IBISWorld benchmarking data.

Asset-Based Methodology (Dominant for Land-Intensive Properties)

For land-intensive agricultural properties — particularly broadacre cropping, cattle stations, and pastoral holdings — asset-based valuation is the dominant or co-primary methodology. The asset base comprises: land (valued by registered valuer using comparable sales); water entitlements (separate valuation by water broker or specialist water valuer); livestock (at market value, typically assessed by independent livestock agent); plant and equipment (at depreciated replacement cost); and goodwill/business value (typically 1.0–2.5x maintainable EBITDA for an operating farm enterprise). Total enterprise value is the sum of these components, adjusted for the strategic premium or discount applicable to the specific acquisition context.

Revenue Multiple Methodology (Smaller & Pre-normalisation Businesses)

For farm businesses where EBITDA is difficult to normalise — due to significant owner-operator labour substitution, family member remuneration, or highly cyclical commodity price conditions — buyers and advisors may reference revenue multiples as a sanity check. Revenue multiples in agriculture vary widely by sub-segment and are less reliable than in service businesses due to the high variability of both revenue and input costs; however, as a reference point, food processing businesses typically trade at 0.8–1.5x revenue, while farm operations are generally assessed on an asset-plus-earnings basis.

What Buyers Focus On: The Due Diligence Value Checklist

Sophisticated acquirers in the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector apply consistent due diligence filters that directly determine where in the multiple range a business is valued:

1. Title, tenure and land use approvals — freehold title confirmation; land use zoning; any heritage or native title overlays; development or planning approvals for existing or proposed infrastructure.
2. Water entitlement documentation — water licence number, type, allocation history, transferability, and independent current market valuation. For irrigated enterprises, water is often the highest-value asset and requires specialist assessment.
3. Earnings normalisation — three years of tax returns plus EBITDA add-back schedules accounting for above-market owner salaries, private use of farm assets, non-recurring expenses, and family employee costs. Commodity price normalisation is also standard: buyers assess earnings at mid-cycle commodity prices, not peak.
4. Export accreditation and food safety compliance — current status of all relevant export licences, market access permits, food safety certifications (e.g. SQF, GlobalG.A.P., organic certification), and documented compliance history.
5. Biosecurity protocols and history — documented biosecurity management plan; any prior disease notifications or breaches; compliance with movement documentation requirements; status under relevant state biosecurity legislation.
6. Environmental and carbon documentation — existing carbon project agreements (ACCU registry); environmental management plans; any outstanding native vegetation or waterway compliance obligations; vegetation history relevant to clearing permit status.
7. Key person independence — can the farming operation continue at current performance levels without the vendor? Is there a documented farm management system, crop rotation plan, stocking program, or operational manual? The absence of documented systems is consistently the most common valuation discount driver in agricultural due diligence.

Conclusions

The Australian agriculture, forestry and fishing sector in 2025 presents one of the most genuinely compelling M&A opportunities in the domestic mid-to-large market — not simply because of the record production values or strong export performance, but because of the structural convergence of forces that historically produce sustained deal markets: motivated vendor supply from generational succession, patient and well-capitalised institutional demand, and a global capital re-rating of food production assets as essential infrastructure.

The KKR/ProTen transaction has fundamentally changed the conversation about how to value and finance Australian agricultural assets. By classifying ProTen as agricultural infrastructure and financing the acquisition through an infrastructure fund vehicle, KKR has created a new reference point that will reverberate through the valuation of contracted protein production assets, processing infrastructure, and supply chain facilities across the sector. The Bunge/Viterra and Cargill/Teys transactions have reinforced the message from a different angle: for multinational agribusinesses, supply chain control in Australia is a strategic imperative, and no price premium for a well-positioned asset is too high when the alternative is losing market access in a biosecurity-compliant, export-premium environment.

For vendors, the message is clear but requires patient preparation. Agricultural businesses that invest in the next 12–24 months in export market development, water entitlement documentation, carbon project registration, and operational systems documentation will achieve materially better outcomes than those that present as-is. The window of motivated institutional and PE buyer demand is open now — but the best buyers are applying increasingly rigorous due diligence standards, and only vendors who have genuinely prepared their business will command the premium multiples that this market is capable of delivering.

For the M&A community, the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector deserves far greater analytical attention than it has historically received from the business brokerage community. Behind the modest business count statistics lies an extraordinary deal landscape: 85,000+ businesses with ageing ownership demographics, record production values attracting unprecedented institutional capital, landmark PE and multinational validation from the transactions of 2025, and structural tailwinds from Asian food demand growth, carbon farming, and the global food security imperative. This sector is at the beginning of its most active consolidation phase, not the end.

2026 Outlook

The 2026 outlook for the Australian agriculture, forestry and fishing sector is one of near-term production moderation against a backdrop of sustained and accelerating M&A activity. ABARES projects total agricultural production value will moderate to approximately $95 billion in FY2026–27 due to below-average rainfall forecasts and normalising commodity prices — but the structural forces driving institutional capital into Australian agricultural assets are not weather-dependent and will continue through any short-term production cycle.

Production & Revenue Outlook

• Grain: A return to average seasonal conditions and normalising global wheat prices will reduce grain revenue from the FY2024–25 record. IBISWorld projects grain growing revenue to decline at -4.4% CAGR over the five years to FY2029–30 to approximately $17.1 billion. However, the structural demand for grain-derived biofuels, SAF, and bioplastics offers alternative revenue diversification for large operators.
• Beef: The herd rebuild cycle is expected to constrain processor throughput and export volumes through FY2025–26, with revenue forecasting modest contraction. However, strong export prices — particularly from Japan and South Korea — and growing US demand for Australian beef (reflecting supply constraints in North America) will support farm income above historical averages.
• Horticulture: Consistent export-driven growth trajectory expected to continue; almond, berry, and citrus sub-segments with strong Asian market integration will outperform. Controlled-environment cropping investment will accelerate as operators seek to reduce weather and labour risk.
• Aquaculture: Real production value expected to remain steady through FY2028–29 at approximately $3.48 billion, with aquaculture growing as a proportion of total fisheries value. Salmonid, prawn, and oyster species will drive volume growth.
• Forestry: Flat to modest growth as construction market recovers gradually. Institutional ESG investment in plantation timber and carbon sequestration will grow as a proportion of transaction activity, regardless of near-term timber price conditions.

M&A Outlook

The M&A pipeline for 2026 is assessed as the strongest for the sector in a decade. Five factors underpin this assessment:

• Succession volume at the highest in a generation: the convergence of baby boomer farm owner retirement and the complexity of intergenerational property and business transfer is creating a sustained, multi-year pipeline of motivated vendors.
• Institutional capital allocation to agriculture accelerating: global pension funds, infrastructure funds, and sovereign wealth funds are increasing target allocations to real asset categories that include farmland; Australia is a primary beneficiary of this allocation trend.
• Record production validation attracting new buyers: the sector's achievement of $100 billion gross production value has created domestic and international media attention that is expanding the buyer universe beyond traditional agricultural participants.
• Trade policy uncertainty driving supply chain security investment: geopolitical tensions, US tariff policy uncertainty, and supply chain disruption from climate events are driving multinational agribusinesses to secure direct ownership of upstream production and processing assets in stable, biosecurity-compliant jurisdictions like Australia.
• Interest rate normalisation improving deal economics: the easing of Australian and global interest rates is expected to improve farm buyer financing conditions, reduce the cost of acquisition debt, and improve the relative attractiveness of yield-generating agricultural assets versus fixed income alternatives.

Emerging Themes to Watch

• Precision agriculture as an M&A premium: farms with documented precision agriculture data — variable rate application records, yield mapping, soil carbon baseline measurements, and connectivity infrastructure — are commanding premiums from technology-aware buyers who can use this data to improve post-acquisition management and demonstrate ESG compliance.
• Carbon farming as a transaction driver: as ACCU prices mature and the range of eligible activities expands, carbon project agreements will increasingly appear as dedicated value items in agricultural due diligence rather than as ancillary considerations. Vendors who have registered carbon projects before sale will see material value accretion; those who have not may find buyers requesting post-settlement assignment of the development opportunity at a discount.
• The food-energy nexus creating new value layers: the emerging opportunity in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) feedstocks from grain (tallow, canola, wheat starch), biofuel production, and on-farm renewable energy generation is beginning to create additional revenue layers for large farming enterprises that sophisticated acquirers are starting to price into their models.

About Morgan Business Sales

Morgan Business Sales is one of Australia's leading specialist M&A advisory firms for the mid-market, with a dedicated focus on business sales, acquisitions, and succession advisory across the agriculture, agribusiness, food and beverage, and primary industries sectors. Our team brings direct experience in agricultural valuation, transaction structuring, rural property advisory, and the negotiation of complex multi-component deals involving land, water, livestock, and operational business value.

We work with farming families, corporate agricultural operators, agribusiness founders, and institutional sellers to achieve premium outcomes in a transaction environment that rewards rigorous preparation and strategic market positioning. Whether you are planning a sale in 12 months or five years, the time to begin preparing is now — the buyers who are paying the highest prices in 2025 and 2026 are applying increasingly sophisticated due diligence standards, and only vendors who have invested in the documentation, accreditation, and structural readiness that these buyers require will achieve the outcomes this market is capable of delivering.

For a confidential initial conversation about your business or asset, contact the Morgan Business Sales team.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the agricultural sector worth in Australia and is it a good time to sell a farm business?

The Australian agriculture, forestry and fishing sector achieved a gross production value of $100.3 billion in FY2024–25, with ABARES forecasting a record $107.4 billion in FY2025–26. For vendors, the M&A market is exceptionally active: institutional capital is at record levels of deployment into Australian agricultural assets, the average farm owner is 57 years old creating strong succession demand, and landmark transactions like KKR's $1.3 billion acquisition of ProTen and Cargill's full acquisition of Teys Australia have validated premium valuations. Businesses that are well-prepared — with documented export accreditation, water entitlement valuations, and operational systems — are achieving materially better outcomes than ever before.

How are farm businesses valued for sale in Australia?

Farm businesses in Australia are valued using a combination of methodologies depending on their type. Land-intensive properties (broadacre, cattle stations) primarily use asset-based valuation: land (at current market value), water entitlements (separate specialist valuation), livestock (at market value), plant and equipment (at depreciated replacement cost), plus a business goodwill component of 1.0–2.5x maintainable EBITDA. Operating businesses with normalised earnings (horticulture, aquaculture, agri-processing) are valued using EBITDA multiples ranging from 4x to 10x depending on sub-segment, export accreditation, scale, and management independence. Water entitlements can represent 20–40% of total enterprise value in irrigated enterprises and require specialist independent valuation.

What EBITDA multiples do agricultural businesses sell for in Australia?

EBITDA multiples for Australian agricultural businesses vary significantly by sub-segment. Broadacre enterprises with export accreditation and water security achieve 5.0–9.0x EBITDA. Premium horticulture with export market integration and retail supply contracts ranges from 5.5–8.0x EBITDA. Aquaculture with licensed site security and export accreditation achieves 4.5–7.0x EBITDA. Dairy farms typically range 3.5–5.5x EBITDA. Agri-processing and supply chain assets can reach 6.0–10.0x EBITDA with long-term contracts and management depth. Sub-scale family farms are generally valued on an asset basis. The most significant premium driver across all sub-segments is documented access to Asian export markets.

Who is buying farm businesses and agricultural assets in Australia in 2025?

The Australian agricultural M&A buyer universe spans multiple capital types. Global private equity (KKR, PAG, Quadrant, Anchorage) are targeting protein production infrastructure and food processing platforms. International pension funds and sovereign wealth funds (PSP Investments Canada, CDPQ, Nuveen Natural Capital) are accumulating premium farmland under the 'farmland as infrastructure' thesis. Multinational agribusinesses (Cargill, Bunge, JBS) are executing vertical integration strategies from farm to export. Macquarie Asset Management and similar infrastructure-oriented fund managers are targeting essential food supply chain assets. For the sub-$20 million segment, neighbouring operators, first-generation farmers, and family offices remain the dominant buyer class, particularly for family farm succession transactions.

How important are water rights when selling an agricultural business in Australia?

Water entitlements are the most materially under-valued asset in many Australian agricultural transactions. In irrigated farming businesses across the Murray-Darling Basin and Queensland irrigation districts, water rights can represent 20–40% of total enterprise value. Water entitlements are traded in separate markets from underlying land and require specialist valuation by a water broker or specialist water valuer. The valuation factors include entitlement type (high-security vs. general security), reliability of allocation under climate variability, infrastructure condition, and the regulatory framework governing trade and carryover. Sellers who have not obtained a current independent water valuation frequently leave material value on the table.

What makes an Australian farm business attractive to institutional and overseas buyers?

Institutional and overseas buyers consistently prioritise five factors when evaluating Australian agricultural acquisitions. First, export market integration: documented, accredited access to Asian markets (Japan, South Korea, China, South-East Asia) commands a substantial multiple premium. Second, scale and operational efficiency: farm size, equipment modernity, and documented productivity metrics above regional benchmarks. Third, water security: owned water entitlements with documented allocation history and secure irrigation infrastructure. Fourth, environmental and sustainability credentials: carbon sequestration projects, biodiversity documentation, and ESG-compliant practices that meet institutional fund mandates. Fifth, management depth and operational independence: the ability of the business to operate without the founding family, evidenced by documented farm management systems, crop rotation plans, and stocking programs.